What a second Trump presidency means for big US tech firms

What a second Trump presidency means for big US tech firms

The recent U.S. election result sent shares in artificial intelligence chip giant Nvidia soaring to a record high and drove up the price of bitcoin, signaling the market’s positive outlook on the potential impact of another Trump presidency on the tech sector. Tesla also saw a nearly 15% surge in stock value, likely pleasing its CEO Elon Musk, who Trump recently praised as a “super genius.”

For those without Silicon Valley stocks but who rely on its products, however, the picture is different. Millions of users on Musk’s social media platform, X, now face a choice: whether to continue posting on a platform owned by someone poised to play a significant role in a Trump-led administration.

Trump has suggested that Musk might be responsible for “making recommendations for drastic reforms” to improve the efficiency and performance of the federal government, potentially giving Musk significant influence over regulatory bodies overseeing his and other tech companies.

X, Musk’s social media platform, is already under scrutiny. Independent tech analyst Benedict Evans has described it as “a coordinating site for misinformation,” with many critics arguing that it amplified false claims that distorted the election process. This raises questions about whether a Trump administration would actually address misinformation on social media, especially if the platforms in question are run by Trump allies.

Evans is doubtful that Trump would tackle misinformation. “He likes misinformation,” Evans says, adding that many in tech believe content moderation has gone too far. Rather than removing content, he suggests at best there may be limits on amplifying falsehoods, indicating a potential shift toward fewer restraints on social platforms and possibly a stronger rightward tilt.

As the 47th president, Trump would face significant influence over crucial years for AI development and the tech giants — Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon — which control the data and processing power affecting billions. While Trump openly admires Musk, his stance on tech is more nuanced. Trump, known for railing against elites, could take action against tech monopolies. Notably, during his first term, the Justice Department initiated an antitrust case against Google for anti-competitive practices, highlighting the populist tension in Trump’s tech agenda.

During the election, Trump personally contacted Google CEO Sundar Pichai, criticizing the company’s search engine for not showing enough favorable news stories about him. He warned of potential Justice Department action against Google for alleged election interference. Trump also issued a warning to Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, threatening jail time if the platform engaged in any “illegal” campaign activities. These interactions underscored Trump’s willingness to pressure tech leaders and hinted at a confrontational approach to tech firms perceived as hostile to his interests.

Trump’s record on tech has shown contrasting approaches. As Prof. Rebecca Haw Allensworth from Vanderbilt University notes, he initially took a tough stance on competition issues through his appointees. Yet more recently, Trump has shown a friendlier attitude toward tech, especially toward Elon Musk, which could signal a shift.

If Trump assumes office, several high-profile antitrust cases against major tech firms, led by Federal Trade Commission (FTC) chair Lina Khan, will likely still be ongoing. While many speculate Khan would be dismissed, Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has shown support for her anti-monopoly stance, particularly her concerns over tech mergers that could suppress free speech.

On the other hand, Trump acknowledges the global influence of American tech giants, particularly in the AI race, which he views as critical to national security. When recently discussing Google, Trump pointed out that “China is afraid of Google,” questioning whether breaking up the company could harm U.S. strategic interests, highlighting his complex approach to balancing tech dominance and competition.

 

Trump suggests that, rather than breaking up large tech firms, he would seek to ensure they operate “more fairly” while keeping them strong to compete globally, especially against China. His stance is shaped by strategic considerations, balancing market competition with the desire to maintain American tech dominance. In this vein, Trump has mulled over whether to restrict China’s access to advanced microchips essential for AI, and whether AI code should remain open-source to foster domestic innovation—or if that would only benefit geopolitical rivals. Despite tensions, Trump said he would “save TikTok,” though it remains under pressure to sever ties with Chinese ownership.

For the EV industry, Trump’s potential reduction in incentives would likely hurt many manufacturers. Analyst Dan Ives notes this might be advantageous for Tesla, which could see its competitive lead grow as subsidies for rivals decrease. Reports suggest Trump may only modify, rather than eliminate, these subsidies. Restricting Chinese EV imports would also benefit Tesla by reducing lower-cost competition.

Trump’s stance on cryptocurrency has warmed as well. After securing substantial campaign donations from the crypto industry, he’s expected to ease regulations on digital assets. Following his election success, crypto-linked stocks in companies like Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Riot Platforms, and MARA Holdings saw significant jumps, gaining between 11% and 21%.

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